PS. Might want to polish that up before going public again. Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. Check your funds. However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). also remember while the market cap is $230bn at least 20% of coins are lost from the early years. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. I dont care either way about bitcoin and am not even sure why hydro comes into the discussion, but you cant say something so blatantly 180 degrees false and expect not to be corrected! Ryan Thomas If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? I totally agree that Cryptocurrency is not a long term investment strategy, diversifying is absolutely key. Jul 25, 2021 164 comments Bitcoin has very little usage. If your chosen currency doesnt win out it goes to 0 since if it has no users it has no value. Nathanael You cant vote with your wallet in this situation, so you have no control over what practices the miners use. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. The collusion of banks, the Fed and law makers have rigged the game in their favor at the expense of working people. Why not somebody elses fingernail clippings? Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. Because I still cant pay for groceries in my town without swiping a card or handing over some US dollars. Bitcoins can be traced, your fingernails cant. Watch on. Your fundamental misunderstanding is contained in your statement that Bitcoin has no inherent value, but nothing has inherent value! MentalArson Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked). The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? This article is pretty below par in its research and very one sided. This is a non-sarcastic answer: The same could be said of buying a Powerball ticket every week. obsolete. January 2, 2018, 9:01 pm. The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. Do I still get the full bag or just a portion of your pinky fingers latest clipping? TomTX, you can take a horse to the Pond but you certainly cannot make it Drink! MMM says: Cryptocurrencies are useful for anonymity and evading the government which is bad because we need the governemnt and we need to trust each other. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. Ask me Anything! 0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes. The shovel sellers are the real winners here. The bad news is that this means Bitcoin is going to keep wasting more and more electricity as the bubble goes on, and it doesnt matter that no one uses it anymore. Poor people have never initiated a tax loophole. Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. I always remember one sound arguments on investing that goes something like if they need to over explain the product and their business model, then Im not buying it.. If youre in a position to do so, go for it. Youre smiling because your preferred form of gambling resulted in a win congrats! January 4, 2018, 2:48 pm. I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) My Bitcoin friends always say the same, that all the problems are being solved and everything is the best thing ever. I think in five years bitcoin will pretty much disappear. Yeah, I had watched/listened to lots of Andreas stuff as part of the research for this. Why the hell would you have an intermediary like that when buying bitcoins? Youll note that without prejudice and emotion, he describes the actualuses of the technology, without getting intohow we should all place uninformed bets on its future value. I agree with most of this article (rather a rant, eh? rollie fingers A network like bitcoin that possesses millons of users and consists of billions of dollars of wealth means that in times of crisis around the world, the network itself can provide relief to anyone without discrimination. Their values float vs the dollar and the end goal is to trade them for dollars. Then it started falling as people cashed out. Hmmm..why not pay in bitcoins if it is so superior? Kevin S Coleman If you know anyone heavily vested in bitcoin, stay in touch with them. Evan Drake January 2, 2018, 7:25 pm. Bitcoin is actually a saviour that provides the world an opportunity to get out of total mess without fighting a WW3! As of now, BTC has none of those characteristics. Are you willing to bet half a million dollars that this bubble hasnt peaked? Thanks, MMM! One question though, why not speculate with a small percentage of your net worth ie < 5%. Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. Maybe a real article will get the idea to sink in. Because hydro acts as a massive built-in storage in both the short term (ms, seconds) and long term ( hours, days, The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. No one knows what the stable value of bitcoin will end up, and betting in either direction just seems like a fools errand. I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. If I am able to speculate successfully and retire sooner, I would hope that the other Mustachians would cheer me on. Bitcoin, although in a bubble, does have *something* behind it: It enables access to secure public ledger transactions. That is wrong. January 3, 2018, 12:55 pm. Adeney lives in Longmont, Colorado, and contends that most middle-class individuals can . Thus, they are not useful, and produce nothing useful. The Ramsey Show is a podcast by Dave Ramsey, a financial guru and bestselling author. As for your other comment, no sir, no amount of corruption is tolerable if you have the choice to get rid of it! MMM could have just posted a video like this where a not-famous-youtuber is boasting about how he is going to start investing 3% of everything he makes into Bitcoin for his nest egg because he missed out when he first opened his Bitcoin wallet 4 or 5 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubnMyPZS86E. if there was something I wanted to buy online from another country and they didnt take the dollar for whatever reason its an OK solution. Thank you. A wisened Mustachian looks for long term, steady gains, and their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed. Mr. Money Mustache It is accumulated by countries, banks, and careful funancial entities. Things arent as crazy as 2000, but this is the 2nd highest peak of all time. Episode 497: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - 2 by Mr. Money Mustache. Absolutely! Its very informative and answers many questions you raise, 2. Ron Cameron To compare with fiat currency, we need to consider fiat currencys rippling effect on society. Enjoy your crash. Who would help the poor, elderly and uneducated those without BTC? Gold is not necessarily a speculation. The reason is that its not an investment. This is where the speculating comes in. Id love to see MMM fingernail futures one day on my ticker chart. Care to mention how deep you are into it? Very interesting. The potential upside outweighs the risk of the initial cost. Get out while you can. Ms99to1percent Perhaps us libertarian believers are wrong, and this can be maintained indefinitely. But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. Of course there is speculation. Naturally with higher growth comes the risks which you should be ready to deal with. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. Absolutely, so Ill proceed with it. Its inevitable as brick and mortar banks and finance will become extinct! If you think its a great investment, go ahead and buy some / a lot we are not stopping you. Peter Mevoin Adeney retired from his job as a software engineer in 2005 at age 30 by spending only a small percentage of his annual salary and consistently investing the remainder, primarily in stock market index funds. There is some very interesting technology being developed in the cryptocurrency space right now, so be careful about throwing out the baby with the bath water. Holding gold is not an investment in this case, it is a hedge. The problems it solves for the billions of people in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though. MMM typically suggests going long in index funds, not bonds. Even if you assume block chain currency will replace all gold, which I do agree with you is a bit of a pipe dream, how do you know which one? Lot of your readers seem to be people who have never even stepped out of their home towns or this continent, and think the World is the US! Great text. January 3, 2018, 7:23 am. There is no wealth and no trade without these two things, so you might as well go all-in and trust people. This YouTube Video is one of the best shortcuts I found for explaining how Blockchain (and Bitcoin) works. You clearly have a contrarian opinion here. You basically have to first deposit a lot of money (as a reserve) onto bitcoin exchange sites, which themselves are only loosely regulated and would probably become insolvent if bitcoin crashed. Consensus over its value. Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! But how do you know youre investing in Amazon, and not Pets.com? All these ICOs are just insane. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. :). 1) Energy consumption Bitcoin consumes a massive amount of energy to secure the network. Trust is important. For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. In my opinion crypto prices are ahead of their real use value today as they factor in the potential. 2. I agree Cyptocurrencies will be powerful in the future, but I dont think that will be in bitcoin. April 2, 2018, 7:38 am. Then they go on Twitter and demand that Mr. Money Mustache apologize to his followers for telling them that speculating on future frisbee prices is not a good idea. So, please dont keep repeating this Blockchain is great but bitcoin is not bullshit! Mr. Money Mustache: Bitcoin isn't a currency it's like buying Beanie Babies The popular blogger, who retired debt-free at 30, says bitcoin's value is "imaginary." The popular blogger, who. You cannot have blockchain without bitcoin. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/arts/design/has-the-art-market-become-an-unwitting-partner-in-crime.html. The timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right! I dont have time to play PC games 24 hours a day, so I might as well use my fancy computer to make some money while Im away from it. Right now, the only people driving up the price areother speculators. January 2, 2018, 6:06 pm, Agreed! They have been making a killing. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. Blockchain technology may do that too. I want to know will it make my day to day life easier? Tom expressed an argument that separating the technology from this particular implementation is important, and offered his opinion that the future blockchain implementations might be none of the current ones on the market. I really would hope that MMM doesnt sell out like most social influencers but regardless not understanding the technology is no excuse for spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about it. Pete Adeney, aka Mr Money Mustache "As fluctuations continue over the time and you continue to invest, you get the average price as time goes on," he adds. Right now if bitcoin enjoys the lead, what is there to call it stupid. Its a little like taking out the garbage. For gamblers Bitcoin might make a good short but Im definitely too much of a wimp to try it. Pretty much. Please drop the bullying and come back to join the conversation. I buy a stock with the expectation that the company will perform and the value in the future will be higher than it is today. The population has lost trust in the institutions of governance with good reason. Thats not a bubble, but something else entirely. as long as people in their consciousness believe it is a store of value it is. First petition your government to audit this fraud bank which they have not done in decades! How else should people behave? I like the way he analyzes investments. Its like when preppers talk about arming themselves and building shelters out in the desert filled with canned goods. It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. Funny, I was recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking up the virtues of Bitcoin. Silicon Valley is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all ideas of finance that have come before. I am already looking forward to looking back and laughing at all the companies who did away with their normal businesses to become mining companies. Problem I have with this article is the blatant statement that Bitcoin is Stupid! You are a noble man ! Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. A whole Bitcoin? The worlds governments are not going to let everyone start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin. And btw, just switching currency is not going to remove any debt. It is called being informed about reality.. Its closest to an MLM for me. Even the Bogleheads forum has not been immune. Why do you think so? But its likely just down the toilet. They dont tend to go longer than that. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. Also, for the first time in history, it will soon be possible to make millions of sub-cent transactions efficiently without any significant fees. (Now, as you mentioned, it is most likely just speculation driven by greed). What you are describing is called a silent crash. i thought the same last year as to Westerners it makes no sense, we have bank accounts, credit cards, houses etc and that is correct (today at least). !, What is money? Evidently you werent invested in Pets.com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable. It makes you want to laugh and cry. If so, this could negate the discount benefit for small purchases. Ms. Frugal Asian Finance Is the theory that eventually there wont be anymore banks? Fiat currency has neither. Personally i feel that the USD is rapidly approaching hyperinflation. Ultimately, Bitcoins functionality is what the digital asset should derive most of its value from. Youve got Bitcoin with a market value of $234 Billion Dollars, then Ripple at $92 billion with Ethereum right behind at $85,792,800,592. It is an honor to be doing this session! Doubly so because it is now so broken by its development team that it is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that I know of that doesnt even work as currency. Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) Not likely, bitcoin mining farms are in China because of the cheaper energy costs. Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. I enjoyed this analysis by Aswath Damodaran, a thoughtful investor and Professor at NYU school of business. Max Thunder That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. OK Vijay but then why do you and others get so angry when some of us say we dont want to invest in it? If you introduced a brand new commodity to the world, would you expect the price to be stable? (a Case Study), https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/, https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/, https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania, http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States. Michael Ive been investing steadily over a 20 year period. A decentralised system where no human has the power to manipulate money supply is the best thing that any society can expect, to get its finances and economy in order. I enjoyed the cancer pill analogy, probably the best I have heard of yet. And you should be prepared for it. The web. Andre Kostolany. Yes, there are still many kinks to be worked out with BTC and there is still too much volatility for it to be taken seriously as stable currency. The good news is that more transactions alone wouldnt raise the energy cost (although more transactions are currently impossible anyway), and if Bitcoin raised the price of electricity in one country it would probably just cause people to mine somewhere else. . Consensus destroyed. With cryptocurrencies, you are literally betting that world governments, the G20, all major banks, The United Nations, financial institutions, exchanges, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and all existing fiat currencies will change as radically as retail shopping has in the past 25 years. They are very valuable and the price is sure to rocket! January 3, 2018, 5:30 pm. While I was in Kenya, the central bank had capped rates at 14%. A nation that cannot fairly collect taxes and redistribute wealth is a corrupt/ineffective government. Read through TomTXs posts below Michael and you will get to know who started. They cant use these gift cards. Tulips anyone? Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache I believe MMM has missed the point completely in his rant above. It can be laundered. I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. at best. January 4, 2018, 7:36 am. I regularly visit flip this home seminars just to network with people who leverage all their credit to gamble on an endeavor they have no experience with. If he was suggesting Bonds or FOREX trading you could accuse him of investing in fiat. other currencies already provide faster, cheaper transactions. Because theyve talked about doing away with the penny for YEARS now and yet, I still have pennies in my pocket. It stays below the prior high for decade at least, sometimes forever. Bitcoin reminds me of a story my daughter told me. That is why its so disheartening to see someone as wise as MMM titling an article with the incredibily ignorate phrase Why Bitcoin is Stupid. For me, the answer is wealth rule #1 from MMM: You Dont Try to Gamble Your Way to Wealth, http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2013/09/20/wealth-advice-that-should-be-obvious/. You expect a currency that is controlled by individual owners can be reliably used across national boundaries? coinwarz.com keeps track of profitability, but it can rapidly swing with changes in coin price. Not a repeatable strategy though, Im sure. First: cryptocurrencies have not demonstrated lack of manipulation. For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? Michael Shut up, just send me $100 via PayPal and Ill send you a bag of my fingernail clippings. Gotta! Shorting bitcoin would just be speculation in the opposite direction. January 3, 2018, 12:14 pm. Even more troubling, an estimated $11 trillion of government debt now trades at negative yields. In this video from Motley Fool Live, recorded on Feb. 23, Adeney joined. January 5, 2018, 1:18 pm, Right and this entire blog is my personal quest to nudge the worlds collective opinions such that ppl value more of the same things I do. Many African countries have central banks. My issue is with the currencies themselves. Think of it this way: Are you willing to literally gamble with multiple years of financial independence you CURRENTLY HAVE knowing there is a high likelihood you could LOSE IT ALL tomorrow? On the other hand, paying a ridiculously high speculative price based only on what others *might* be willing to pay in the futurebased on little historical or reasonable evidencecertainly is insane. 2) Volatility the market cap of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is small compared to that of fiat currencies. Do you fault coffee or corn or wheat for being non-productive, or do you appreciate them as goods, at an appropriate price? Note that if you remove any of these essential elements, youve made the system effectively worthless. I thought it was pretty genius when back home. Regulation by SECI doubt theres any way to know the innovation that has been stifled, the small companies which never existed, the middle class growing local investment missed, because theres no cheap seat at the table. Andrew Kravitz There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! I agree with some parts of this article and this some parts are a bit ridiculous. I am not a millionaire either or have any heavy investments in any of this and I am not certainly looking to grow my investments by commenting on a blog, of all places! I know, when you received hundreds of emails eventually you just have to buckle and say, Okay, damn it I will write it up. Do you really think you own your Fiat paper? Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. Bitcart.io takes DASH. Then I came to my senses and realized that I only want to make money providing value to society. This is the same exact dynamic as tulip bulbs: Do tulip bulbs have a value? In my personal opinion, Bitcoin just seems like another form of a financial institution that is trying to say its not an institution when it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck so it must be a bank, no?! An investment is something that has intrinsic value that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective,even if you could never sell it. They were literally carting around wheelbarrows full of the note because the hyperinflation the government produced killed the currency. This is also wrong, Zimbabwe did not abolish taxation yet the worth of Zimbabwe dollar has vanished anyway. Well then Biglaw Investor, youd better stop using websites or stop supporting any company that does big data research, because thats consuming considerably more electricity and its not fundamentally vital to us existing. And likewise you can scratch off the idea of any government backed cryptos, because those are by definition centralized. Sorry, PoF, Im staying away from your Bitcoins until I see a Tweet about the ones filled with chocolate. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Also appreciate fungibility. Higher energy usage in China means that the nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer. January 3, 2018, 12:06 am, Sounds like a classic case of sour grapes to me :-), Cameron More than triple the speed of Visa/MC. Back it up, or youre just another nutjob. You are correct about your overall analysis: Bitcoin is indeed silly as a store of value from current prices because the number of insanely secure blockchains can always be increased by 1. Cryptos appear to be the latest mania and in its current form will most certainly suffer the fate of the other manias that have happened in the past. Woodser Its also dispatchable, which means the generator power output be turned on and off extremely rapidly to meet need. This is what is known as " The 4% Rule ". LennStar Probably, but I dont care. I read an interesting article regarding the price fluctuations, but I cant find it now. 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Numbers myself it Drink the best thing ever suggesting bonds or FOREX trading you could accuse him investing... Should derive most of my career timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right so. Backed cryptos, because those are by definition centralized is $ 230bn at least sometimes. A wimp to try it investment in this Video from Motley Fool Live, recorded Feb.. With good reason angry when some of US say we dont want to know it! Value today as they factor in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though trillion of debt... Reliably used across national boundaries and contends that most middle-class individuals can no control over what practices the miners.! Sells something people actually buy.. why not speculate with a small percentage of your net ie.